US, EU Exports Drop Over 10%

• Article
• 2024-08-08
• 15 Comments

In today's era of economic globalization, different countries have distinct industrial divisions and play significantly different roles and identities.

Europe and the United States, as more developed regions globally, are the main forces in the global consumer market.

Asian countries, on the other hand, primarily focus on manufacturing exports, especially those in East and Southeast Asia.

Among them, our country is the world's largest industrial nation, the largest manufacturing country, and also the largest foreign trade exporter.

Therefore, we have long-standing and frequent trade relations with Europe and the United States, and exports contribute significantly to our country's economic growth.

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Thus, exports to the European and American markets directly affect our economy to a large extent.

However, for reasons well-known to all, the United States has initiated decoupling and supply chain disruption, attempting to reduce its dependence on Chinese manufacturing.

Especially since the outbreak of the global pandemic, Chinese manufacturing has demonstrated extremely strong capabilities, exporting various materials and goods worldwide.

China has almost single-handedly supplied goods to the world, and this terrifying manufacturing strength has made the United States feel uneasy.

Subsequently, the U.S. began to collaborate with the EU and countries like Japan and South Korea to restructure the global industrial chain and reduce its reliance on our supply chain.

As a result, the trade volume between our country and Europe and the United States has visibly declined in the past two years.

According to data released by the customs, in U.S. dollar terms, our country's total foreign trade volume exceeded 50 billion U.S. dollars in March of this year, with a decline of 5%, of which exports were 279.7 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, and imports decreased by 8.2%.

It can be observed that exports in March have significantly declined compared to the first two months of this year and have also experienced a substantial drop compared to the same period last year.

Some believe this is due to the high base in March last year, as exports in March last year saw a small explosion peak after the pandemic, with export growth rates being very high.

Of course, this is a contributing factor, as many macroeconomic data fluctuated significantly last year, with a certain base effect.

However, the base is not the main factor.

Looking at the types of exported products, the decline in labor-intensive products has dragged down exports, while the "new three items" have been an important driving force for exports.

Among them, the exports of products such as clothing, textiles, furniture, and bags in March have seen a larger decline compared to the first two months of this year, with a drop of more than 30 percentage points.

Exports of mobile phones, integrated circuits, and automobiles in March still achieved relatively high growth, especially automotive exports, which have continued to grow steadily and have been a highlight of our country's exports in the past two years, enhancing the overall export driving effect.

From the perspective of export destinations, exports to ASEAN and Japan and South Korea have stabilized and rebounded, but exports to the United States and the EU have seen a significant decline, which is an important factor causing the export slump in March.

Data shows that in March of this year, our country's exports to the EU declined by 14.9%, and exports to the United States declined by 15.9%.

Exports to both the European and American markets have fallen by more than 10%.

Since the EU and the United States are our two important trade partners, the decline in exports to these two markets directly led to the overall export decrease.

If we analyze the export data of other countries in March, it can also corroborate this view.

Vietnam and South Korea both achieved rebounding growth in their exports in March, indicating that the demand in the international market has not declined but is in a recovery phase.

In an article published the day before yesterday, detailed export data for South Korea and Vietnam in March were introduced, which everyone can look up.

This indicates that the decline in our country's exports to Europe and America in March is not due to insufficient consumer demand in Europe and America.

Could it be that decoupling is accelerating?

Yellen recently came and confidently stated that decoupling would not be pursued, yet on the other hand, she baselessly accused our new energy industry.

What credibility can this two-faced behavior have?

We must be prepared for the future and be ready in all aspects.

According to data released by the United States, our country has not been the largest importer to the U.S. since 2023, falling to the third-largest importer to the U.S., with Mexico and Canada taking the top two spots.

Although the current scale of China-U.S. trade is still large, it is not easy to reverse the downward trend.

Therefore, on the one hand, it is necessary to continue to stabilize export trade with Europe and America, while increasing the export scale to other markets besides Europe and America to mitigate the impact of the decline in exports to the EU.

On the other hand, it is still necessary to continue to accelerate the domestic cycle, as domestic demand is a market with tremendous potential.

To truly achieve the rise of domestic consumption, it is necessary to effectively improve the income level of residents, ensure and increase the income of low and middle-income groups, accelerate industrial upgrading, occupy more globally profitable industries, increase more high-paying jobs, and overall enhance the income of the people, promote consumption growth, and drive high-quality economic development.